Shook Never Had A Chance Editor's note: Don't miss the hard hitting and thorough analysis in the column "Uncommon Sense" in Wednesday's Sanford Herald concerning this election and Sanford's waning good ol' boy network. It is part of our three part analysis and will be published on the e-Lee Dispatch Plus on Thursday.
The only race in which a Democrat significantly improved his performance from two years ago was Jimmy Love in House District 51, normally a competitive district. Two years ago he defeated his GOP opponent Tim McNeil from Harnett County by 1321 votes with McNeil carrying the Harnett County portion of the district almost enough to offset Love's margin of 1828 in his home county of Lee. This year Love carried Harnett County by a small margin and crushed his Lee County opponent, incumbent county commissioner Linda Shook by a margin of 5500 votes in their home county. Shook was, in a sense, a victim of heavy recruiting by the NC GOP caucus which was desperately looking for sufficient candidates to take control of the House should there be a Republican sweep. Two years before, the failure to have a full slate, killed fund raising efforts. Why give money to Republicans if they can't take control even winning every race?. By the filing date, they would have taken any ne just to get a name on the ballot. At the eleventh hour she relented and made the sacrificial trip to the board of elections to file. Long time Republicans warned her that promised significant financial assistance from the GOP House Caucus could not be counted on in a year with a Presidential race, senatorial race, and a full ballot of statewide races competing for contributors. Even with that support she would have been overwhelmingly outspent by the incumbent Love. In fact, caucus leader Chip Stam did send several thousand dollars from his own campaign. Final financial reports are not yet due, but she was overwhelmingly out raised locally where she could muster only token financial support from a handful of individuals while Love had many contributions in the $100-200 from a wide range of people plus very substantial support from several major local contributors, some of which alone out matched Stam's contributions. Some of her strongest supporters as a commissioner who knew she would put forward a well thought out set of issues were still candid enough to tell her Love was just too personally popular to beat in a county-wide vote in Lee County as a state legislator. Some party leaders asked her to help with the planned effort to win commission seats instead, but others like Richard Littiken were determined to fill the ticket. She would do well to cut her ties with him. But as a commissioner she had become obsessed with the budgetary impact of illegal immigration and state-mandated programs over which commissioners have no control and was frustrated with her inability to find solutions to these programs. Working as a loner, and under the heavy hand of Robert Reives, there was little of a county record of achievement. In the end, and with strong encouragement from Littiken and Chad Adams, she filed for an office she never had a chance to win because it looked more attractive than her commissioner's seat. No doubt this is why she decided to run against the experienced and clever Love who had voted carefully and used his office to build significant respect as an incumbent who had seen his popularity grow while hers had seriously eroded, in part, because of her close association with Richard Littiken and Americans for Prosperity. (For the purposes of her political future, this analysis largely puts her financial problems aside. However accurate her version of her first round of bankruptcy difficulties as a political vendetta may or may not have been, some questioned her judgment for filing for office while confronted with serious financial problems. Others, especially supporters of funding for the high school and other projects she had opposed, questioned her continued membership on the finance committee. Her most recent problems are with a US Bankruptcy judge for violating his order, and blaming others this time is a dog that will not hunt. If handled right it need not be a decisive factor. There were 1,298,000 bankruptcy's pending at the end of 2007 and with entire industries looking at the option, it is not an insurmountable stigma.) Shook now faces some major challenges. She needs to recognize that her first challenge is she must first win reelection. This will require that she broaden her interests and demonstrate a willingness to cooperate as a team player with the new bipartisan coalition on the board. She does not need to put her principles aside but needs to demonstrate leadership on a major community issue like BRAC where her considerable energy, intellect, and drive can make a difference. Continuing to look like a one issue candidate on immigration will not carry the momentum to win. Following through on her proposal for changing the appropriation process to the schools could be a significant plus if she gives up her antagonistic ways toward the school board. She has to learn to become more of a collaborator and listen to a wider range of views. As Stephen Cover wrote, “Seek first to understand, then to be understood.” It is a tall order, but Linda Shook is an inteligent, brave, highly motivated and hard working person. If she decides to take that course, she still has a a viable political future ahead of her .And despite the expectations of some, Jimmy Love has every intention of running again in 2010 to participate in the 2011 redistricting process, especially after his strong showing this year. Meanwhile, Love's showing will strengthen his hand against would-be challengers of his own party. It is no secret Jamie Kelly had planned to advance to that seat from the chairmanship. That is not going to happen. Kelly is not likely to have a reputation that can be repurchased regardless of the outcome of the legal situation in which he now finds himself in time to tackle Love. Love's argument that the county is better represented in the re-redistricting process of the additional term by a representative of considerable seniority will resonant strongly even beyond members of his own party. These plans may come as a surprise to some but have been openly discussed for months. Jimmy Love looks like a stronger candidate today because he had what amounted to token opposition. He had the cards all along and has emerged from this race with an even stronger hand for 2010. His final expenditures, however, are going to look like massive overkill. As someone told him, all he really needed to do was to go to the beach in September and come back to vote and have his election party on November 4. During that stay he could have played a lot of cards while still holding the winning hand at home.
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