The story is the same as two years ago in the sheriff's race; the drama of counting provisional ballots didn't change the outcome. No more drama for me from provisional recounts unless the votes between candidates are more than a handful of votes.
One can make general assumption that the provisional ballots will be a rough sample of the much larger universe of votes that counted the first time around. Provisional ballots may "nibble" at the final outcome but not more than a few votes and Tatum's lead was too much to overcome. This is even more true in a 'one of the multiple' choice race than in a head to head race. (See my previous post on these kind of races.) In fact, it can be argued that Cameron Sharpe, or any of the winners, beat Kim Lilley. Tatum was just the last one to finish before her.
Had Lilley been able to file against Tatum, she might have beat him. It can be argued that even though there was a lot of common support for Sharpe and Lilley, they were both running against Tatum. The anti-Tatum money gravitated to Sharpe and that gave him a big advantage and a bigger slice of the pie in the multi-vote system. Regrets to Lilley--better luck next time.
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