Capitlizing on BRAC Will Take Local Leadership

BRAC Briefing Just A Guess

The problem with massive planning efforts is that as the estimates get more precise, they also get more likely to be wrong. It works like this. If a produce manager is holding a sack of oranges and tells you it ways "about 3lbs", you know you are getting an informed estimate. Somehow if he says, 3.043 lbs, it suggests that it has been weighed on an accurate scale. If we fall into the trap of believing they can estimate the age groups of the children moving into Lee County, all their estimates must really be reliable.

Almost every number you hear coming from BRAC is an "about." (click here for the BRAC Site) It isn't presented that way, but the truth is that other than some "hard data" from the military, it is an informed guess. For example, just one factor--how the traffic flows evolve in Spring Lake could push development in another direction.

It is expected that Fort Bragg will increase its numbers by about 20,000: 6,772 soldiers, 1,669 civilians and 12,000 family members, when two of the Army's largest command structures. Depending on the assumptions that number is quickly multiplied to 40,000 people in the area, 6100 estimated new residents in Lee County, 2200 potential new homes in Lee County, and 1,000 potential new jobs. Local demand for products and services could increase by $143 million with $77 million in sales to local businesses. The numbers drill down to the estimate that we will have 400 more students in our schools.

Problems with regional planning techniques should not lessen our interest in BRAC. Quite the contrary, it should tell us that the more concrete action we take now to get ready for the future, the more likely the future can be what we want it to be. We're back to the principle of citizen participation which is not a strong point in Lee County. This is the kind of issue the tired good ol' boy network can't handle. It is a mobilization of effort beyond what has ever been done before, and doing things the same old way will not make it happen.

For example, The North Carolina Military Business Center (NCMBC) (click here to link to site) is a collaborative effort between North Carolina business and industry and the North Carolina Community College System. Funded in 2004 by a grant from the North Carolina General Assembly, the NCMBC operates under the supervision of Fayetteville Technical Community College. It coordinates a program with other community colleges that Assisted firms who won 436 contracts - worth between $830 million and $1.645 billion - from the NCMBC’s opening in 2005 through mid-May 2008. It is likely that this "grant" from the legislature would be called an earmark.

The point is we have an excellent community college--top rated--what are we doing to help it become a major hub for other areas connected with the expected BRAC acitivity? We need to pay less attention to estimates and find our own "vision" for what we want BRAC to be and get visionary leaders and experienced implementers working for Lee County's good.